Senatorial Races 2008 #04

080928spoll
Originally uploaded by Randuwa

It's been awhile since I posted regarding the political races for the 112th Congress' senate members. And 2008 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2004 only even stronger for the Democrats.

In 2004, it issue was control of the Senate. The mandate was national anger over the war in Iraq. Republicans were on the defensive, and 7 seats were in serious play: Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Virginia. Minnesota was an open seat that the Democrats wanted to keep, Tennessee was an open seat that the Republicans wanted to keep, the rest were races against sitting Republicans. When the dust settled, the Democrats were sending freshman senators to Washington, D.C. for six of the seven seats; only Harold Ford from Tennessee remained at home. Republicans made no gains in 2004.

Forward to now. The issue is the economy. In 2008, Republicans have again virtually no chance of gaining a seat in the Senate from a Democrat. Their one time best shot was Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and her most recent polling has her beating her Republican challenger with 54%--in politics, a very comfortable margin. I see the Democrats picking up 8 seats this time around. Open seats in Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia; Up-sets in Alaska, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon.

The polls in Minnesota have been 1 and 2 points apart for months now. Al Franken will benefit in the end from the votes of thousands of newly registered and young first time voters to squeak out the closest victory of the 8.

Alaska is the most amazing takeover. It's incumbent is the longest serving Republican senator in the history of the state and congress, and Ted Stevens is in no mood to retire; however, he's also on trial for Federal corruption charges -- a similar circumstance benefited the victory of Jon Testor in Montana in 2004.

North Carolina is the flip flop that no saw from the outset. Many thought of Libby Dole as a sort of Republican aristocracy, but challenger Kay Hagan has successfully run a campaign exposing Senator Dole's weak, lap-dog voting record that has taken the sheen off of her tiara. It's been a dirty campaign with some of the highest undecided voter percents across the nation. Hagan has other things going for her, too. Obama is doing surprising well in the Tar Heel state, large numbers of first time and young voters who's demographic is tracking decidedly more progressive, and one of the largest influxes of Hispanic immigrants in the nation.

Other contests to watch are in Mississippi, Kentucky, and Georgia.