I realize that I've been sharing polls regarding both the race for the Presidency and the Senate races, but haven't said anything about the House of Representatives with its 435 members all up for re-election on November 4th of this year.
The map is one that I drew showing all of the congressional districts. They are red/pink if held by Republicans and blue/aqua if held by Democrats. The pink and aqua signify that the representative is a woman. The districts are so tightly drawn in major metropolitan areas, that I drew them in a larger scale and included them as insets. From Top Clockwise these are: Chicago, Detroit, Boston, Newark-New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Miami, Houston, Dallas, and Los Angeles.
Presently, Democrats hold 235 of the seats to the 201 held by Republicans (this includes the hybrid seat of the District of Columbia which is served by representative Eleanor Holmes-Norton, a Democrat). The most conservative estimates of the November 2008 election results gives the Democrats a net gain of 1 additional vote, while the most optimistic predictors look at a 111th House of Representatives with around 260 Democrats. The truth no doubt lies somewhere in the middle, but in any event this is another Democratic year.
Many prognosticators create lists of vulnerable incumbents and too close to call races, and for the purposes of my own point-of-view, I'll go with the thinking of the Congressional Quarterly. CQ identifies 16 critical races. I will add 4 of additional interest to me to round off this list at 20. In parenthesis after the candidate's name I have place an (I) for incumbent or a (C) for challenger. When there are 2 "(C)" the seat is an open contest.
The top 20 most contestable seats in the House of Representatives are:
Alabama’s 6th District
Democrat Parker Griffith (C) vs. Republican Wayne Parker (C)
Alaska’s At-Large District
Republican Don Young (I) vs. Democrat Ethan Berkowitz (C)
Connecticut’s 4th District
Republican Christopher Shays (I) vs. Democrat Jim Himes (C)
Florida’s 16th District
Democrat Tim Mahoney (I) vs. Republican Tom Rooney (C)
Kansas’ 2nd District
Democrat Nancy Boyda (I) vs. Republican Lynn Jenkins (C)
Louisiana’s 6th District
Democrat Don Cazayoux (I) vs. Republican Bill Cassidy (C) and Independent Michael Jackson (C)
Minnesota’s 3rd District
Republican Erik Paulsen (C) vs. Democrat Ashwin Madia (C)
Nevada’s 3rd District
Republican Jon Porter (I) vs. Democrat Dina Titus (C)
New Jersey’s 3rd District
Republican Chris Myers (C) vs. Democrat John H. Adler (C)
New Jersey’s 7th District
Republican Leonard Lance (C) vs. Democrat Linda Stender (C)
New Mexico’s 1st District
Republican Darren White (C) vs. Democrat Martin Heinrich (C)
North Carolina’s 8th District
Republican Robin Hayes (I) vs. Democrat Larry Kissell (C)
Ohio’s 15th District
Republican Steve Stivers (C) vs. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy (C)
Ohio’s 16th District
Republican Kirk Schuring (C) vs. Democrat John Boccieri (C)
Texas’ 22nd District
Democrat Nick Lampson (I) vs. Republican Pete Olson (C)
Washington’s 8th District
Republican Dave Reichert (I) vs. Democrat Darcy Burner (C)
PLUS FOUR
Florida’s 13th District
Republican Vern Buchanan (I) vs. Democrat Christine Jennings (C)
Missouri’s 6th District
Republican Sam Graves (I) vs. Democrat Mary Jo Shettles (C)
Ohio’s 2nd District
Republican Jean Schmidt (I) vs. Democrat Victoria Wulsin (C)
Pennsylvania’s 3rd District
Republican Phil English (I) vs. Democrat Kathy Dalhkemper (C)
On this list the vast majority of vulnerable incumbents are Republicans. All of the at risk incumbent Democrats won their seats in their districts for the first time in 2006; or, as in the case of Don Cazayoux from Louisiana, in a special election since the 2006 general elections. The Democrats can be characterized as oddities OR if they repeat this time, harbingers of a blue-ing America. The Republicans are mostly established politicians whose fate this "blue-ing" may be about to determine.
And in the interest of full discloser, I am a Democrat; and I give to candidates who strike my fancy. In 2006 I gave $2,100.00 to 27 different candidates for the offices of Senator and Representative. All were running for open seats or against Republican incumbents. 18 of the 27 WON! 67% return on my meager investment seems pretty damn good to me. It's like gambling, but with a purpose that isn't about just me.
Of those on the current list, I gave to Nancy Boyda, Darcy Bruner, Don Cazayoux, Christine Jennings, and Nick Lampson in 2006. So far in 2008, I have made contributions to Darcy Bruner, Martin Heinrich, Larry Kissell, Ashwin Madia, and Victoria Wulsin. In addition, I have made contributions to Chris Van Hollen, MD 08; Jennifer Dougherty, MD 06; Al Franken MN Senator and Barack Obama, Democratic Presidential candidate. Thus far my giving is off the mark set in 2006, and so I am just getting started really exploring candidates and supporting their bids.
And that's the bottom-line. IF you believe that America needs a change of direction back toward the essential ideals that make us unique in the history of the world, then do something about it. Send a Democrat a dime!
Parker Griffith is AL05, not 6
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