Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The State of the House #02


CongressionalShift
Originally uploaded by Randuwa
As we are now 20 days away from the election, it seems like a good time to review the status of races for the House of Representatives in the next (111th) congress. The top map shows all 435 districts and represents the current state of representation in the 110th congress. Blue equals democrats and Red republicans (the lighter shades distinguishing the districts represented by women).

The map below represents a reconstituted House based on the polls as they currently stand. It depicts a net gain of 22 seats for the Democrats while not a single currently Democratic seat switches to the Republicans. This would further shift of balance of power from today's Democratic majority of 236 versus 199 to a whopping 258 to 177.

All is not lost for the beleaguered Grand Old Party. There is a seat in Florida (FL 16) which only became Democratic in 2006 after the Representative Mark Foley chasing after boy pages scandal broke. It's traditionally Republican, and the Democratic replacement is in a bit of a sex scandal himself, involving infidelity and adultery of a heterosexual nature. If I were on the RCCC I'd have my sharks circling that bleeding soul 24/7!

But still: 257 to 178.... pathetic.

And where will the pick-ups most likely occur?

AK-@Large, CO-04, FL-08, IL-11, KY-02, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, NV-03, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NY-13, NY-25, NY-29, NC-08, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, VA-11, and WY-@Large

And as all things "full-discloser" go, I have contributed to the Democratic candidates in CO-04, MN-03, NM-01, NC-08, PA-03, and WY-@Large. But I have also given to MD-06, MD-08, OH-02, and WA-08..... (MD-08 is a shoe in; so 70% so far is pretty good, a mon avis!)

Bottomline: Get out there and get involved!

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