The third look at seats in play in the House of
Representatives takes us to the upper Midwest and the states of Nebraska, Iowa
and Minnesota. A trio of states
with 15 total seats where 6 are in play.
Of the nine safe seats, 5 are held by Democratic Representatives and 4
are by Republican Representatives.
A) Nebraska's 2nd seat is the smallest of three in the state
and built entirely around the city of Omaha and it's environs. You might think that any outpost of
blue in a very red state is an oddity, but consider how in the midst of very
conservative places, pockets of liberalism and progressive thinking pop
up--like St. Lake City in Utah or Austin, San Antonio and Houston in
Texas. This would be a good description
of Omaha. The 1 term incumbent was
only 1 of two Democratic Representatives to win a seat from a Republican in the
2014. He has a long history of
serving the people of Omaha in the state legislature and is a hometown
representative. His opponent
Republican Don Bacon moved to Omaha to retire and has a military career that
spans decades. He is basing his
campaign on a strong military with the promise to supporting intervention in
the Middle East. I think while he
speaks for many citizens of Nebraska, too many of them for his good live
outside of the 2nd district. I
think this will be a very close race, but I'm giving it to Ashford, based in
part on the fact that Presidential candidate Clinton is projecting very well in
this district, too; one that Obama carried in 2008.
B) Iowa's 3rd district is in play with its freshman
Republican representative David Young.
David won the right to represent Republicans from a crowded field of
wannabes where a majority is not a plurality. He is also very likely a closeted gay man, which I wouldn't
normally bring up, except that rumors to that effect weaken his appeal to
conservative core. His opponent is
Jim Mowrer who is an unabashed progressive who has laid out there just how far
left he's willing to go. It's a
very interesting dynamic in a district that was drawn by a Republican
legislature to trend Republican. I
think it's too close to call--but Mowrer is a candidate worth sending a little
cash to.
C) Iowa's 1st district trends Democratic and is held by
another Republican freshman swept in to office in the 2014 Republican
tsunami. Republican Rod Blum has
done little to distinguish himself in congress except vote the Republican
obstructionist party line. He
faces a bit of a firebrand in Democrat Monica Vernon. Vernon has held nearly every public office and position in
the district over her frenetic career of public service from Education to
Journalism to Public Office. Her
campaign machine is tight, and I think it's easy to predict this one is going
back to the Democrats.
D) The only open seat in this region is Minnesota's
2nd. It is a seat held by a
Republican who is retiring and it leans Democratic by demographics. The Republicans are placing their hope
on a radio talk show host, Jason Lewis, who has run and lost other offices in
the past. The Democrats chose
Angie Craig. Craig is a
non-politician who has worked in the field of healthcare for the St. Jude's
children's hospital non-profit corporation. I'm going with Craig.
E) Minnesota's 3rd district is currently held by Republican
second term representative Erik Paulsen.
The district wraps around the western suburbs of Minneapolis/St. Paul
and has long been a Republican seat.
Democrats are hoping that Paulsen's margins indicate weakness and have
offered Terri Bonoff as his opponent.
She is a strong candidate and current state Senator, but I'm not feeling
it. I think Paulsen holds onto
this one.
F) One of my favorite Representatives is Rick Nolan of
Minnesota's 8th district. Rick has
had two careers in the House. His
first was from 1975 to 1981 when he was elected in the post Watergate purge
(the only other politician who can claim that still in office is Vermont
Senator Patrick Leahy!) Long after
retiring from that stint in Washington he returned and won re-election again in
2012 (and again 2014). His 2014
election was a squeaker, and thus he is seen as vulnerable. His opponent is a young, one issue
Republican candidate who is also the owner of a multistate shooting range
company called Mills Fleet Farm.
Further it's a rematch of the previous campaign where Mills was also
Nolan's opponent. Given the trend,
I see this election as the nail in the coffin of Mills' political hopes--Nolan
wins again.
No comments:
Post a Comment