State #2 in this series of commentaries is New Mexico.
For the past 6 weeks prior to Tuesday's election it tracked for the Democrats, and the Democrats cautiously wanted to believe the polls. In 2000, the Democrats captured the state's 5 Electoral votes with a margin of victory in the popular election of 366 votes. In 2004, Bush prevailed in the state.
Trends being what they are, the question of New Mexico's political heart was in question. Add to that a growing Hispanic minority, a neglected Native American constituency, and a younger voting age populace; and the state seemed a true battleground -- not simply for the candidates, but for the ideological future of this nation.
In the days leading up to the election, leading pollsters presented the following results:
Albuquerque Journal - 45% for Obama, 40% for McCain, 15% undecided
Rasmussen - 54% for Obama, 44% for McCain, 2% undecided
Survey USA - 52% for Obama, 45% for McCain, 3% undecided
RealClearPolls.Com called it 50% for Obama and 43% for McCain, with 7% of the electorate undecided.
The average spread in these polls was 7.3% in Obama's favor; the actual results were 57% for Obama to 42% for McCain; or a more nuanced spread of 15.1%. A difference that is over twice as large as what polls were showing.
A closer analysis shows a very strong Obama turn out from Hispanics in the "Land of Enchantment". This trending toward the Democrats was even more powerfully expressed in the Congressional races. New Mexico enjoys the standard compliment of 2 Senators with 3 House members. Before November 4th the break down was 60% Republican/40% Democratic. After this election, New Mexico's is 100% Democratic! It joins the ranks of Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island with this distinction.
It would seem New Mexico's fledgling flirtation with the GOP has come to a speedy and decisive halt.
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