The DNC Has Spoken

obamaclinton
Originally uploaded by Randuwa

But is the way toward a nominee any clearer?

Without Michigan's and Florida's delegations the magic number to clinch the nomination was 2,026. And the candidates totals were Obama 1,977.5, which gave him the need to secure an additional 48.5 delegates, and Clinton was sitting at 1,777 delegates with a need to acquire an additional 249 delegates. Obama was 97.6% of the way to clinching the nomination. Clinton was 87.7% of the way to a victory.

Now add in Florida and Michigan. Florida was assigned 158 delegates, and Michigan 128. Clinton won 55.2% of Michigan's popular primary votes. Obama was not on the ticket out of respect for the DNC's decision to originally not seat the delegation; however, 40.1% of Michigan's popular primary vote went to "uncommitted" and these delegates have been awarded to him. In Florida, both names were on the ballot. Clinton received 49.8% of the popular primary vote and Obama received 32.9%.

The DNC is giving delegates from Michigan and Florida half a vote each as its punishment to the states for breaking party rules.

This means that Obama will receive 25.5 votes from Michigan and 30.5 from Florida for a total of 56 additional delegates. Clinton will receive 35.5 votes from Michigan and 46 from Florida for a total of 81.5 delegates from the two formerly disenfranchised states.

The additional delegates recalibrate the calculus for victory moving the magic number from 2,026 to 2,098.

With this change Obama now has a total of 2033.5 delegates, is 96.9% of the way to clinching the nomination, and needs 64.5 additional delegates to win. Clinton now has a total of 1.858.5 delegates, is 88.6% of the way to obtaining the nomination, and needs 239.5 additional delegates to win.

Can she do it?

There are three delegation contests remaining. Today Puerto Rico awards its 55 delegates. On Tuesday, Montana awards its 16 delegates, and South Dakota awards its 15 delegates. There are enough delegates to give Obama victory but not enough to allow Clinton to win. Realistically, neither candidate will win with popularly voted delegates.

So it comes down to the remaining super delegates.

There are total of 762 super delegates. Obama currently is supported by 321.5 of them and Clinton by 275. This leaves 165.5 left to make their choice of candidate known.

Combining the remaining delegates (super and state/territory) you get a total of 251.5 still uncommitted. Obama needs to win 26% of these delegates to win and Clinton will need to win 95% of these delegates to secure a victory.

Where will he stand after June 3rd?

The remaining delegation contests will likely be split between Clinton and Obama. I prediction that Clinton will win Puerto Rico and Obama will take both Montana and South Dakota. Out of these contest I anticipate that Obama will receive 41 additional delegates and Clinton 45. And so Obama will be a meager 23.5 delegates away from victory with a pool of 165.5 super delegates holding the power to end the primary race. On the other hand, Clinton will be 194.5 delegates short and statistically out of the race.

The figures of super delegates I used in this article come from The New York Times. The associated press reports that Obama has 331. If this is true, then he would actually only need 13.5 of an available pool of 155.5. I don’t know about you, but to me it seems like the writing is on the proverbial wall.

It's time for Clinton to be a big girl and do the grown-up thing. We've heard rumors of a gracious concession...it's time for this to happen. Will history judge her as one of our foremost female political leaders, or as a streeching, ranting spoiler? Honestly, Hill, it's time.