Off To The Races!

You all know I'm a teacher by vocation, and a political junky by moral choice. But did you know that it's an election year? Well, if you don't you will, and the story at this point is all about the Senate of the United States.

With 100 members (two for each state) who serve 6 year terms, every two years 1/3 of them are up for re-election. They hold seats assigned to "classes," as in members of Class I, Class II, and Class III. The classes all have 33 members and class III has one more with 34. Ergo, 33 + 33 + 34 = 100.

In 2014, it's the members of Class II who will be up for election/re-election. Class II currently has 20 members who are Democrats and 13 members who are Republicans.

Additionally, in any normal election cycle, seats of Senators from other classes can be added to the roster when those seats become empty in the course of their terms due to Resignation, early Retirement, or Death. This class with 33 election seats has an example of each and so 3 additional seats in Hawaii (Senator Daniel Inouye's death), Oklahoma (Senator Tom Colburn's early retirement) and South Carolina (Senator Jim DeMint's resignation). This means that BOTH seats in South Carolina and Oklahoma are up for election. And all told, 36 seats are being contested in 2014.

The map of elections looks like this:

 This map shows the political break down of the seats being contested in the United States Senate in 2014. Blue states are or were held by Democrats, and Red states are or were held by Republicans. The paler colored seats represent seats where the contest is open--i.e. has no incumbent running. 

Right now, that means 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans.

 Given the previous two posts, this map shows my sense of the trajectory of this election seat by seat. It's my reflection on the potential for "change" in the next congress. Currently, Democrats hold the majority with 53 members, and this is boosted by the participation of the 2 Independent member for a plurality of 55 to 45 over the Republicans.

In order to change the power center of the Senate to the Republicans, 6 seats currently held by Democrats need to be switched to the Republican Party. As things stand right now. I don't see that happening.

Off the top, I see one seat that is currently Republican switching to the Democrats, while two seats that are currently Democratic will flip to Republican. End of the day? Senate goes from 55 to 45 TO 54 to 46. 

Three states are too close to call, which leave open the door that Democrats will maintain their current 55 seat majority or drop to a 52 seat majority.

Many contests are still in the primary stage and so are yet to be defined and engaged. Yet, I do think that the number of women in the Senate is likely to increase by 1 to 3 seats.