Midweek Political Prognostications

2008ussenateraces
Originally uploaded by Randuwa

In a normal election cycle, talking about the make up of a Senate with over 15 months to go would be premature in the extreme. But this is not a normal cycle. We've already waded through more debates between the candidates for President than ever before in a "normal" campaign season.

Some credit this early jump-start to the profound desire of Americans to send Bush-the-Lesser packing and on his way. To that sentiment, I add my hearty, "AMEN!" And to that zeitgeist I place my faith in this prediction.

Any party needs 60 senators to control the game. In the last election the democrats secured 49; which allowed them majority with the support of the two independents (Bernie Sanders - VT, and Joe Lieberman - CT). This gave them control of the agenda. But with Lieberman squawking and voting like a loyal Republican; holding the agenda turned out to be "window dressing": a chance to brag about how much they want to do without doing much of anything!

For the record, the bar used to be a simple majority. The most recent and current crop of Republicans redefined it as a 60/40 margin to maintain their control over the outcome. It's frustrating, but it's also short sighted. History is not a fool; those who live by the sword will fall upon its double-sided blade...

And to that end I'm predicting the following in 2008 vis-à-vis the United States senate:

1) All of the 11 currently held Democratic seats will remain safely in the BLUE column. I believe this will happen even if Senator Biden of Delaware retires. And thanks to Senator Vitter's sexual hypocrisy, Mary Landrieu has moved from the most vulnerable democratic incumbent to a poster child for Integrity. Whoa whoa!~

2) The currently 3 open seats (CO, ID, VA); all formerly Republican will flip to Democrats. It’s a function of demographics. The Rocky Mountains are moving into the progressive camp and Virginia's power base is moving to the metro north -- not to mention that they have an incredibly powerful democratic candidate in former Governor Mark Warner.

3) I count another 5 Republican seats that are very vulnerable. They are (OR, AK, TX, MN, NH). Three of the incumbents are among the most incompetent members of the senate, one is entangled in a corruption campaign up his whazoo; and the other is a conservative Mormon in an increasingly progressively atheistic state.

4) Now the fun. There are another six presently held Republican seats which I believe are in "GOP" jeopardy. And the bottom line in all of them is the war. They are my "referendum" states: ME, WY, NE, KS, KY, & NC. They represent a hodge podge of realities and circumstances. Some have high profile senators (NC, KY, ME & KS); one has an open seat, and one a nearly open seat (NE & WY).

Of these, there will be no two more higher profile contests than those of Mitch McConnell of KY and Susan Collins of ME. Given the last cycle surprises in both New England and Kentucky, I wouldn't put a plug nickel on either of them!