The Race For The Senate 2016

So now, it's real, right? The conventions are over the races are under way.

And then there is the Senate. I prognosticated back on May 9th and here is my latest update as to the state of the races there. Things have changed or finalized in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, and Iowa. And we still await final selection of candidates in Alaska and Florida. And then the polls are telling us stuff, too.

From May until now some things have happened.  

1. Some primaries have determined the candidates  
1. In Iowa it's Patty Judge facing Chuck Grassley.  Patty is the former state Attorney General.  She is poling well.  She will enjoy the surge of women voters that Hillary Clinton will bring to the polls.  And Grassley who always campaigns as a centrist is painted with the slime of conservative poster child for Constitutional obstructionist puppet for his blocking of President Obama's nominee to the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland.  (I rate this race a total toss-up)
2. In Colorado, after a crazy-ass primary fight on the Republican side, Darryl Glenn rose in a field of 14 contenders.  Glenn is an uber conservative in a state that is NOT uber conservative.  I move Senator Bennett from Leaning to Safe and the polls are bearing me out.  A former purple state, Colorado (like Virginia) is also polling as strongly Democratic as traditional blue states this cycle.
2. Candidate changes
1. Florida: Out and no en casa, little Marco Rubio is BACK!  I still don't think he's a slam dunk to be re-elected, but until his opponent is chosen (August 30th), he had cleared the field of Republican Senatorial wannabes.  This moves Florida from a likely democratic pick-up to a toss-up.  If the eventual Democratic candidate is smart, he will pummel Senator Rubio on the immigration issue and show him by his own words as the immature, spineless, opportunist that he is.  Ready to say and do anything to achieve his personal goals.  
2. Indiana: A leaning Republican state has fallen fully into toss-up play by virtue of Evan Bayh's return to the fray and Mike Pence's selection as VP.  Bayh is a proven winner and beloved native son of the Hoosier state.  And Mike Pence is an embarrassment and despised failed governor.  Don't think for a minute that those Indiana citizens who looking forward to voting him out of office won't turn up to vote to Evan Bayh as one way to send the message that Indiana is NOT an ass-backward backwater of conservative ideals.
3. Present Polls
1. In Nevada, the strength of candidate Catherine Cortez-Masto has slipped in the shadow of a major media assault fueled by unregulated cash from the Koch brothers and Sheldon Addison.  Send her a dime or two--give her the level playing field that will take her over the top.  Hispanic voters are the key to this eventual win, but for now it's a toss-up.
2. The support for Pennsylvania's Democratic candidate, Katie McGinty (and the state overall for Clinton) is growing and moves this race from toss-up to leaning, while....
3. In neighboring Ohio the race between Portman and Strickland has become cloudier, as has the allegiance of the state on the national presidential stage.
4. Wildcards
1. Alaska: Independent candidate Margaret Stock may really end up pressing all the right button in her attempt to replace incumbent Lisa Murkowski, and ironically, Murkowski's own strategy of running as an independent may be her own undoing.
2. Louisiana has the most fucking weird election rules in the nation.  Having elected a Democratic governor in the past year, and given that the election of a senator is also a statewide contest...It could happen?

Full disclosure, I have contributed to Democratic candidates in Nevada, Arizona, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri.