The middle-Atlantic region stretches from the shore of
eastern Lake Eire to the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Traditionally, a Democratic region, through careful
gerrymandering, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Virginia have all gone majority
Republican in their representation in the House--in spite of the fact that by
registration both Pennsylvania and New Jersey of by huge numbers majority
Democratic. Virginia lost a court
battle over their 2011 district map and will be voting with a new map this
year. Through shifts in boundaries
and retirements as many as 4 of their districts are now competitive. Add to that 3 districts in Pennsylvania
and 1 in New Jersey and 8 total districts are interesting.
A) If this weren't a year with a Republican Governor who is
a hot mess and polling below 20%, a Republican Presidential candidate not doing
much better, I would not think that this district was even vulnerable. The Republican incumbent is Scott
Garrett. Garrett has been in
possession of this seat for the past 7 terms. In the past two cycles, he was managed to get about 55% of
the cast votes against nominal opponents.
Garrett is a staunch conservative who has never had his record fully
exposed. And here's the difference
this time. His opponent is Democrat
Josh Gottheimer, an executive with Microsoft who works as their General Manager
for corporate strategies. He is
well financed, fully supported by the DCCC and plays to win with an
intelligent, aggressive campaign.
He is running on economic issues and infrastructure renewal. He supports securing Medicare &
Social Security, important issues for the aging population of the district and
against Garrett's stand to privatize retirement. I might be stepping out on a limb, but I honestly think this
is the year when an incumbent like Garrett, in a district like the 5th of New
Jersey, can lose.
B) The circumstances of this election also place the 15th
district on the map. Incumbent
Charlie Dent is a high profile Republican congressman with a very moderate
rating, leaving him out of step with the leadership of the party. That he is popular in his district
speaks volumes to the districts sensibilities that lean more to the Democratic
agenda. Dent won unopposed in
2014. This year he is facing a
rematch with his 2012 opponent, Democrat Rick Daugherty. Daugherty is a genial candidate with
local roots and years of working in the Democratic Party apparatus at the
grassroots level. It's an odd de
je vu moment in a Democratic year, but I still give this one back to Dent. A Republican keep.
C) Pennsylvania's 8th is the ultimate swing district in the
state. The current holder is
Republican Michael Fitzpatrick who is not seeking re-election. In his absence, his brother, Brian is
running. Brian Fitzpatrick is a
former FBI Agent and is leaning on this as his sole reason to represent. Steve Santarsiero is running for the
Democrats. Santarsiero is a state
Senator with wide popularity and a long history of bi-partisan support and
success. This one is swinging back
to the Democrats.
D) Pennsylvania's 16th district is open and being sought by
two strong opponents with views that represent the progressive Democratic
agenda and the conservative Republican agenda. The Republican is a state Senator with 7 years of experience
named Lloyd Smucker. The Democrat
is political novice, Christina Hartman and is well known in the local
not-for-profit community. In a
year with a strong Republican presidential candidate I would give this one to
the Republicans, but in this year?
It's a toss up.
E) Virginia's 10th District is held by freshmen
congresswoman, Barbara Comstock.
Comstock won the seat in a squeaker, and the shifts in demographics give
this seat a zero bias one way or the other. The Democratic opponent is LuAnn Bennett. She has an amazingly compelling
personal story who knows the issues in the district and has the roots to give
her credibility. Bye, bye
Barbara. Check out her video: https://youtu.be/7vYe6FLaPk0. I did, and then I sent her a
contribution.
F) Virginia's 5th District runs down the center of the
commonwealth. This area is
traditionally Republican territory.
It is an open seat with the retirement of it's current Republican
representative, Robert Hurt. The
Republican vying to replace him is Tom Garrett. Garrett is a lawyer and a state Senator for the past 5
years. He is a party line
conservative who is anti welfare, anti choice and anti immigration, but he
would like the government to bring high speed internet to rural communities
(read between the lines for yourself).
His Democratic opponent is Jane Dittmar a local politician in a small
county in the district. She has
deep roots and is mounting a serious campaign. This one is probably my largest stretch of all of these
predictions, but given Virginia's generally strong support for the Democratic
ticket and the campaign support from other Democratic state office holders like
Senator Warner and Governor McAuliffe--and more importantly the addition of
more Democratic precincts in the redrawn congressional map. I'm gonna say, for now, too close to
call.
G) Virginia's 4th district benefits the most from the
state's redrawn district map. The
demographics so favor the Democrats now that the Republican incumbent chose to
retire. His replacement wannabee
is Mike Wade a local county sheriff.
His Democratic opponent is a member of the Virginia state Senate, Donald
McEachin. McEachin wins easily.
H) Virginia's 2nd district is a swing district, and it's
open with the retirement of current Republican Scott Rigell. The Republican candidate is Scott
Taylor. Taylor is a current state
representative, former Navy SEAL, a small business owner. These credentials all carry a lot of weight
in a district that encompasses all of Virginia Beach and one of the densest
concentrations of military families and employees. The Democrat is Shaun Brown. Brown is a local business owner, community activist and
liberal Democrat, who is probably too left of center for the majority of this
district's residence. I'm calling
this one for the GOP.
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