Saturday, July 23, 2016

Electoral College Stats This Week

I am keeping a running average of the national polls by state for a 30 day period creating averages for the states. I categorize the states in the following way.

States that are averaging 3% or less are Battleground and too close to call.

States that are averaging between 3% and 4.99% are Leaning toward the favored candidate.

States that are between 5% and 9.99% are Likely to vote for the favored candidate, and
States that are 10% or greater are Solidly in one camp or the another.

As of today, two states are in the Battleground category:
Florida and Arizona

Of the presumed battleground states for this election

Ohio and North Carolina are leaning toward Clinton

Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Nevada are likely toward Clinton

Missouri is likely toward Trump

Michigan is solid for Clinton

Indiana has not been polled in the past 30 days (position based on three previous presidential results).

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