Quake Update 01

I've blogged about quakes here often lately. It's been an unusual year for seismic activity. First, there was the devastating 7.0 Mw Earthquake with it's epicentre near the town of Léogâne, Haiti on January 12, 2010 which was followed by weeks and weeks of aftershocks (really only ending around the beginning of April). The death toll has yet to be calculated, and will never be accurately known, but can safely be placed in the 225,000 casualties. And all around the world the frequency of earthquakes was higher than usual.

Then on February 27, 2010 the earth again shook with a violence that is thankfully rare. This time with a magnitude of 8.8 Mw at a point just off the Chilean coast near the region of Chile called Maule. Since this event the site remains incredibly active. There have been over 250 aftershocks over 5.0 Mw and nearly 40 over 6.0 Mw. Unlike Haiti, Chile is a nation that builds with the memory of devastating earthquakes in its past. Perhaps the main reason that to date only 486 casualties have been identified as caused by the massive earthquake in February. And all around the world the earth continues to shake at a rate above its recent past.

And now on April 4, 2010 the shakes again. This time in a remote area of Mexico near where the Colorado River enters the fault created Gulf of Baja California. It shakes to the tune of 7.2 Mw. It is felt as far north into the United States as Central California, and Utah. And the initial quake spawns a host of aftershocks the stretch up along to fault lines into southern California in the United States. The death tole is below a dozen. New buildings fare well, while older structures in the remote and historic cities and town suffer the brunt of the damage. The fact that the quake occurred on a Sunday is a blessing. And all around the world the earth continues to shake.

Only 2 days later, Indonesia is hit with a major earthquake off of the coast of Sumatra. A 7.7 Mw quake strikes just off of the northern and western side of the island. This quake caused no tsunamis. And as far as has been reported to the international community, no deaths were caused by this quake.

So what's next? There is no way to predict an earthquake. And the fact that they occur along fault lines between tectonic plates is about as astute an observation in the modern world as plants are made of cells. So, what can be said that is quantifiable and also potentially predictive?

Here goes nothin':

1) You tug a piece of cloth in one place, and eventually the treads move in others. The activity both east and west of the Haiti quake has increased. This week there was a 5.0 Mw quake west of Haiti below the Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and the general seismic activity east of haiti is off the scale in very minor quakes (18 between 2.0 and 3.0 in the past 7 days)--and today there was a 4.4 quake just north of Puerto Rico.

2) The activity along the Nazca Plate and the South American Plate north of the Maule region of Chile has picked up, and is very active. This continues up the coast between the Cocos Place and the Caribbean Plate in Central America, as well.

3) Across the Pacific the region around the Tonga Trench has been extremely active. As has the fault along the Java trench especially along the coast of Sumatra.

4) The western edges of the Caroline and Philippines plates are likewise very active.

Another shoe that may be ready to drop in this is volcanic activity. As the tension between plates expresses itself, it does so in more ways than simply earthquakes. And the increase in smaller quakes suggests that the earth is relieving it's tensions in safer ways than huge events. For example, back in February the seismic activity off of the coast of Oregon was greatly elevated. I wouldn't expect a major quake there. But again, I am no Kreskin....