Florida is operating under a new map that was redrawn to
right unconstitutional shenanigans in the previous map created by the state's
Republican Congress. The old map
was taken to court and where the new map was mandated. As a result, a handful of districts
have become more competitive, and one district has become less in favor of the
Republicans. Ergo, in the
aggregate the benefits falls in favor the Democratic Party. Add to that the whole-sale alienation
of 1) Black voters, 2) Latino voters, 3) Women voters, 4) Jewish voters, 5)
Young voters, and 6) Immigrant voters and you've got a pretty likely scenario
for down ticket advantage to the Democrats.
A) Florida's 2nd.
The present incumbent is Democrat Gwen Graham who benefitted from the
previous map's concentration of African American voters in the northern
counties that abut Georgia.
Without them, the new boundaries of the district favor Republicans and
so the Republican Candidate, Neal Dunn is the likely winner by virtue of
demographics. Dunn is a Republican
in the good old Tea Party mold.
His challenger is Democrat Walter Dartland who is a retired Deputy
attorney general for the state beat out his primary challenger by 133 votes and
will surely loose to Republican Dunn in the general election.
B) Florida's 7th.
The seventh has been redrawn to represent a more balanced demographic,
and pits 2 term Republican incumbent, John Mica against Democratic challenger
and political newbie, Staphanie Murphy.
Mica is fairly lack-luster member of congress who champions veterans and
small business owners. Murphy is
well positioned to take on Mica on these issues as a former National Security
Specialist and small business owner.
This is a very close race in a borderline district with a incumbent who
has built up his war chest for just such a vibrant campaign. Too close to call is my call.
C) Florida's 10th.
Currently held by Republican Daniel Webster (who only last year saw
himself as a viable alternative candidate for Speaker of the House when John
Boehner quit, now has chosen to quit himself after having his district redrawn
to favor Democrats. An open seat
being contested by Val Demings for the Democrats and Thuy Lowe for the
Republicans becomes that rarest of all political transitions, a seat held by a
conservative white man suddenly becoming a contest between two minority
women. Lowe is immigrant from
Vietnam who has thrice now run for Congress, each time unsuccessfully, and
Demings is an African American former Police Chief of Orlando. I give this one to Demings...after all,
I would want to the Lowe's streak broken.
D) Florida's 13th
The incumbent in Florida's 13th district is Representative David Jolly,
a first term Republican who has drawn one of the worst cards in the deck of
House elections this season.
Between the tweeking of his district in the redrawing of the state's map
and the decision of his opponent, former Florida Governor Charlie Crist to seek
the seat for the Democrats--well, as the Bible story goes: The writing is on
the wall--er, ballot--for this one.
Without any need to introduce him, Charlie Crist will add United States
Representative for the House to his Resume in November.
E) Florida's 18th
This is a swing district presently held by Patrick Murphy who is now
running for Florida Senate. An
open seat and here are the candidates: Hoping to retain the seat for the
Democrats is Randy Perkins, and seeking to swing it back to the Republicans is
Brian Mast. Perkins is self-made
small business owner who is running a grassroots populist campaign emphasizing
social safety net, public option healthcare, and women's rights issues (he is
also the father of 4 grown daughters...)
Mast is a double amputee (a fact he features in all of his campaign
adds) Iraq war veteran who wants to repeal Obamacare, protect gun rights,
privatize Veteran healthcare and re-militarize with an eye to escalate
conflicts with Iran and Russia.
All I can say is that I sure hope Perkins wins. I'm giving him the edge.
F) Florida's 26th
One term congressman, Republican Carlos Curbelo is facing a return fight
with previous Democratic congressman Joe Garcia. Garcia was famously derided for getting caught picking his
nose on camera during a congressional hearing and lost a close race in a
midterm election that favored Republicans everywhere. Now the tables are turned. Garcia keeps a hanky in his pocket, and the district's
tweeking slid it in the direction of a more Democratic demographic. I give this one back to Garcia--BUT
there is a very interesting caveat.
With Marco Rubio running Senate and his seat of political power residing
in areas of this district, his presence on the ballot could tip the needle in
favor of Curbelo. We'll see what
matters more, support and redemption for a duplicitous former favorite son, OR
the none stop insults and buffoonery against Latinos and minority voters by the
Republican top of the ticket.
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