Part 6 of my exploration of vulnerable House seats is 100%
Empire State! They represent the single largest group in one state of seats
that are in play with a whopping 7. The fact that the Empire state is HOT with
vulnerable seats in this election cycle is a gift to the Democrats. This
election will certainly be a wave election for their side in this state,
because in most of New York, the type of Republicans that will come out and
suffer their votes for Donald Trump is much thinner than in other states. This
should bode very well for the candidates running in the seven vulnerable seats
at play.
A) New York's 1st seat is an open seat that has been
comfortably Democratic for some time. The Democrat running for the seat is Tom
Suozzi who is campaigning like a progressive Democrat. His Republican opponent
is embattled in a primary dispute that the courts have ruled will require a
special primary on October 6--just a month shy of the general election. So
there is a possibility that Jack Martins won't end up being the Republican
candidate. Which is interesting, because Martins is running like a moderate
Democrat! It's an odd situation, but I give it to Suozzi and the open seat remains
in the Democrat's column.
B) New York's 3rd district is an evenly split district long
served by a Democrat, Tim Bishop. In 2014 during an extremely successful
Republican wave election, newcomer Republican Lee Zeldin took the seat. Zeldin
is a very vulnerable freshman whose background includes a law degree and 4
years of active military service. His opponent worked as an international
peacekeeper and several terms in local government. They both cut clear options,
and I give this seat back to the Democrats in this election with their wave.
C) New York's 19th district is another open seat with the
retirement of the 3rd term Republican Representative Chris Gibson. The district
leans Democratic and if they elect the Democratic winner of their primary, they
will be sending to congress the member with the most interesting name in the
nation, Zephyr Teachout. Teachout is an outspoken liberal Democrat and law
professor at Fordham University. Her Republican opponent is John Faso a career
state politician who offers a conservative agenda. In this year? Welcome to
Washington Zephyr Teachout.
D) New York's 21st district is currently held by freshman
Republican incumbent Elise Stefanik. Stefanik graduated Harvard with honors at
age 21 and immediately joined the Bush administration working on domestic
policy issues. She wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act, promote the
extraction and transportation of tar sands oil deposits across the United
States and is a strong advocate for support of the military. Her Democratic
opponent is Army Colonel Mike Derrick. Derrick is a newcomer to politics and
presents a strong and attractive opponent who can go tow to toe with Stefanik
on issues of military and national defense, and who hold strong positions on
environmental protection and access to Affordable graduate education. Many
pundits are making assumptions about this one, but I am calling it too close to
call.
E) New York's 22nd is the third open seat in flux. It's
incumbent is retiring and was the first sitting Republican Congressperson to
denounce Trump and pledge his support to Hillary Clinton. An act of courageous
personal conviction or perhaps an ominous statement for the Republican
candidate seeking to represent this district? The candidate who hopes to
continue the seat in the Republican column is Claudia Tenney. Tenney is lawyer
who has served in the New York state Assembly for 3 terms since 2011. Her
opponent is Kim Myers. Myers is the daughter of the founder of Dick's Sporting
Goods. She is running on issues around the opioid addiction crisis, jobs and
farming, and constituent services. This is a very competitive district. Too
close to call for now.
F) New York's 23rd is in a band of districts that have gone
for one or the other parties over the years and some say it's a district in
play again. The incumbent is Republican Tom Reed who is seeking his 6th term
will probably get it. His Democratic opponent is John Plumb. Plumb is a young,
energetic candidate who is working the district like crazy. If anyone could change
the fortunes of this district, Plumb is wonderful candidate. Still, I'm leaning
on incumbency and "war chest-ery" on this one. Reed wins with over 6
million in his account to support his campaign.
G) New York's 24th is a Democratic leaning district
represented by a freshman Republican, John Katko who won against a corrupt
Democratic politician in a Republican wave year. What a difference two years
make. His opponent is Democratic candidate Colleen Deacon and she is a better
fit for this district with strong opinions about some key issues like
affordable college tuition, addressing issues around climate change, and
rebuilding crumbling infrastructure for the 21st century. I am betting on
Deacon on this one.
All toll, I feel like New York will deliver 3 additional
seats to the Democrats--and maybe as many as 5...
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