Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Election 2016: State Polls Roundup

I've begun making maps of the states based on the latest polling to show where the mood of the country is at the Electoral College Level. I update my database daily and I exclude no polls. I do, however, us Nate Silver's most recent analysis of polling bias to adjust the published results. This is usually no more than by 1 or 2 percentage points, it's equally distributed toward Republican AND Democratic biases and about 30% of the polling sources remain unadjusted based on the integrity of the track record.

My states are for a 30-day average...it's a little slower than others, but it allows for a more reasoned view...as the election nears in October, I might change this aspect.

I rate states based on the following:

0 to 2.99% is a Toss-up
3 to 4.99% (the very high end of the margin of error) is Leaning
5 to 9.99% is Likely, and
10% or < is Solid

So for August 2, 2016, here's how I call it.

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