Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Swing States?

Political season is always a great time to explore political things. I am enjoying contemplating the notion of swing states. Here is a graph that I made showing the recent history of state preferences. It covers the last six elections covering the last 3 administrations. In that time, there were 19 (plus the District of Columbia) states that were always loyal to the Democratic candidate, and 13 states loyal to the the Republican candidate. While 18 states have slip their votes over the past 36 years.

One thing I find fascinating are the states that join the usual suspects of swingers, but have never swung! That would be: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Dumping them into the mix is really good for media that needs their numbers of electoral delegates to appear in play to make any contest edgy--but it's not reality.

As things stand now 1) Clinton (The Democrat) has 22 states and the District of Columbia in her camp. 2) Trump (The Republican) has 19 states in his column. And, 3) 9 states could be considered swingers. And to that end they are the ones that ought to be the focus of polling and information. I am eager to have current polling from Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, and Indiana, for example.

In the last 3 days other swing states polls have come in to express the following preferences:

Ohio - Clinton up by 5% (NBC/WSJ/Marist), up by 4% (Quinnipiac)
Georgia - Clinton up by 7% (JMC Analytics), up by 4% (Atlanta Constitution-Journal)
Iowa - Clinton up by 4% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
Florida - Clinton up by 1% (Quinnipiac)

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