Monday, August 29, 2016

Vulnerable Seats in the House of Representatives 2016: part 5 the New England States

Looking at the 5th region with vulnerable candidates takes us to New England and a region with fertile ground for Democratic takeovers.  It's also a pair of races full of deja vu. 

A) New Hampshire's 1st district is a ping pong contest as lively and as likely to go back the Democratic Candidate as Illinois' 10th District Seat.  Republican Frank Gunta wins this seat in mind-term and Republican wave years, and Democrat Carol Ann Porter takes it back in Presidential and Democratic wave years.  It's Porter's turn and with New Hampshire trending for the Democrats at all levels--it's going to be a year with a Congressional delegation that is 100% Democratic AND 100% female.  It will be the second congress in the history of this nation where New Hampshire was represented by all women, and the first where all the women are Democrats.

B) Maine's 2nd seat is a rematch election from the previous round with first term incumbent Republican Representative Bruce Poliquin will face off against Democrat Emily Ann Cain.  Poliquin is a moderate Republican who still votes in the majority of the time with conservative, obstructionist colleagues in the Republican Party.  Cain is the former highest-ranking member of the Maine state legislature who offers a more progressive agenda to Maine voters.  The 2nd seat's demographics place Poliquin out of sync in a seat where Democrats outnumber Republicans.  I give this one to Cain.

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