Looking at the House of Representatives, let's start with
California. There are 5 seats there--out of the 53--that are on several watch
lists. Here are the details. One is an open seat, one is held by a Democrat and
3 by Republicans. Of the incumbents; 1 is a freshmen, 2 have been elected
twice, and another 3 times. There is always an advantage to longevity in House
offices--experience equals contacts and value added. So let's look at the
particulars.
A) Seat 07 is crafted around the eastern side of Sacramento.
It is held by 2 term incumbent Ami Bera. Representative Bera is unique in many
ways. His background is that of a physician. He is the only ethnic
Indian-American in congress. As a congress-critter he has amazing constituency
services. The Republican opponent is Scott Jones. Mr. Jones is the twice-elected
sheriff of Sacramento County. Mr. Jones stakes his credentials on his law &
order service. He is an attractive candidate on purely conservative principals,
but I don't see him in this present climate usurping an established politician,
not that it won't be close.
B) Seat 10 is held by Jeff Denham who is a restrained
conservative Republican with 3 terms of representing this district. It rates as just Republican by virtue
of it recent history, however it is in a part of the state that is growing and
become more Democratic. The
critical constituency will be the Hispanic vote. His challenger is a beekeeper farmer named Michael
Eggman. HE is a very charismatic
and down to earth progressive who is providing Denham with a run for his money. Toss-up
C) Seat 21 is very similar to Seat 10 except that it's
already tracking just Democratic.
The 2 term representative is the rarest of all creatures, a moderate
Republican. He has worked hard to
help meet the needs of his constituents, however, like other moderate
Republicans before him, he still falls into line on the big stuff. His challenger is a Emilio Huerta a
small business owner and long time immigrant activist. He has strong name recognition and
supplants Valadao's cache with the Hispanic community. Valadao is the son of Brazilian
immigrants. This is another seat
that will hinge on the Hispanic turnout.
Toss up.
D) Seat 24 is open for the first time in a long time with
the retirement of Democratic veteran Lois Capps. A marginally Democratic leaning district, in a different
climate Republicans might have had a shot at it, but in this election I think
that the Republican candidate Justin Fareed is just padding his resume against
the Democratic candidate Salud Carbajal.
For Fareed this run is his second bight at this apple have lost to Capps
in 2014. Carbajal comes to the
campaign from a decade of elected office on the Santa Barbara county board of
supervisors, and has election has received priority backing from the DNCC. Further, in the primary Carbajal
received over 66,000 votes to Fareed's 42,000. I think this seat is a keeper.
E) Seat 25 is currently held by freshman Republican
representative Steve Knight. The
seat sits in a bed of Democratic leaning districts, although it leans slightly
Republican. Knight is a
conservative Republican with a background in a law enforcement (18 years on the
LAPD) many of whish were spent in
a program that has been discredited as racist (CRASH: Community Resources
Against Street Hoodlums). He is
also a strong support of gun rights and the NRA and is outspoken against the
Social Security program, calling it a "failed system" as recently as
May 2016 during a public primary debate.
There is no question that Knight is a card carrying conservative, the
only question is where or not he's too conservative for his changing
district. His opponent is Bryan
Caforio. Caforio is taking Knight
on head to head over the issue of Social Security. He also supports economic justice issues like equal pay for
women, a living minimum wage and higher taxes on the super-rich. With a clear contrast between issues,
the voters of the 25th district will have a clearcut decision to make in
November. Toss-up.
All of these seats rest on the coattails of the Presidential
election. The issues that are
being presented by the campaigns of Clinton and Trump will drive voter
turnout. This is not a good year
to alienate, insult and attack women and minorities--and in California that
means Hispanic voters. In all of
this I can see 4 seats total for the Democrats.
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