Moving from my first set of battle ground seats for the next
House of Representatives, my second look moves east across the Great Basin and
the heart of the Rocky Mountains.
Here things are actually looking better for Democratic pick-up and many
of the seats owe there leanings to the way in which the states are viewing the
top of the ticket at this moment in times. From Nevada through Utah to Colorado, there are five seats
worth looking at.
A) This is an open seat encompassing the south side of Las
Vegas. It's open because it's
Republican incumbent has stepped out to run for Senator--(a race that is very
close, but that I predict he will loose in a squeaker.) Running in this race is a perennial
Republican candidate, Danny Tarkanian.
He is the son of a very famous UNLV basketball coach, Jerry Takanian,
and is a real estate developer in his right. He has run for various elective offices in the past and in
spite the name recognition and never won.
His opponent on the Democratic side is a local community activist and
first time politician, Jackie Rosen.
She was personally asked to run by outgoing Senate Minority Leader,
Harry Reid. To longtime
prognosticators in local politics, her campaign is a seen as a grand
surprise. One described her as
"extremely knowledgeable on the issues and well prepared" in
interviews. Currently polling
gives Rosen the lead. I hope she
can get the support she needs to win.
I won't argue with the polls--I give this one to the Democrats
B) Is the district that encompasses the northern side of Las
Vegas all the way up the state to the edges of the Reno/Carson City
environs. The incumbent is
Republican Cresent Hardy who is a freshman having defeated one term Democrat
Steve Horsford (the only African American ever elected from Nevada) and that's
the depth of this seat which was newly created after the 2010 census when
Nevada was granted a fourth House seat.
Hardy, besides having one of the coolest names in Congress, has little
else to show for his time in Washington, brief as it is. He serves on three lack luster
committees, the most interesting of which is Transportation and
Infrastructure--and we all now how productive they've been! Besides voting no on Obamacare ad
infinitum he's really got nothing to show the folks back home. His democratic challenger is Ruben
Kihuen. Kihuen is the minority
leader of the Nevada state Senate with lots of positive press with experience
on crafting legislation effecting state education policy. Most pundits see Kihuen as the winner.
C) Utah's 4th is what passes for a swing district in bright
red Utah. It was also created
after the 2010 census and was first held by a Democrat, Jim Matheson. The Republican incumbent's election was
seen as milestone in conservative Republican politics as Mia Love is the first
African American to be elected to congress from Utah. This is election is a total rematch of the previous one that
brought Love to office. The
Democrat in this rematch is Doug Owens.
In the previous election, Love defeated Owens by 4,250 votes or so out
of 125,709 ballots cast. This is
simply a referendum on the national scene with possible racist undertones. As pendulums swing, the weight favors
Owens this time, but I just don't see where the fulcrum is in this one--too
close to call.
I will preface the last two seats with this overriding
notion: Colorado is NOT a swing state in this election cycle. It's rated as more likely to go for
Clinton than Minnesota! It's
incumbent Senator, Michael Bennet is leading his Republican challenger by
16%! This is a Democratic tsunami
in the Centennial State.
D) The first of two deeply respected state politicians from
the Democratic party taking on a very conservative NRA puppet on the Republican
side is Gail Schwartz. She has
strong community, environmental and educational credentials on the ground from
her years of service as a state Senator.
Her Republican opponent is the incumbent Scott Tipton who is a highly
ranked conservative elected in the wave of mid-term conservative fervor from
Obama's first term. She is someone
that would make an excellent progressive voice (and truth in advertising, I
have contributed to her campaign).
I put my call behind my dime.
E) The second is one of the most powerful and successful
state politicians in recent years, Morgan Carroll. She is taking on ultra-conservative Mike Coffman who was
also elected in the midterm Republican boost of 2011. The district has since tracked further into the Democratic
column. Coffman is an anomaly in
blue turning Colorado and a long time target of Democratic strategists. Between the demographics, Coffman's
ultra conservative record and the rising tide of a Democratic sweep crossing
the state, I think, if I were him, I'd be vetting my resume with the NRA, the
Fracking Industrial Complex, Big Pharma or some other corporate interest that
he's been representing in Washington for a fall-back position. I give this seat to Carroll hands down.
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